Nostalgic Revolutionaries

In the 1990s, Mexico underwent democratic reforms that allowed, after decades of one-party rule, a genuine alternation of power. However, this arrangement may be on borrowed time. From 2025, federal judges will be elected by popular vote, tightening the government’s control on institutions after its landslide victory in June 2024. The reform echoes Mexico’s dictatorship, where a single party’s dominance of state agencies made it the only serious contender for power.

The reform threatens judicial independence. Justices will now rely on the dominant party Morena, and thus will fail to hold its rule accountable; instead, they may target opponents to earn its favour. Moreover, the country’s struggle with electoral funding may further strengthen the mafia’s influence on Mexico's political system. Particularly, the change in electoral magistrates will raise serious doubts about the country’s upcoming elections.

The initiative, however, reflects a broader trend across the region. Exhausted by political fragmentation, Latin Americans increasingly support strongman politics. The case of Venezuela is paradigmatic. Citizens welcomed Hugo Chavez’s radical agenda, quickly overlooking his political persecutions. Similarly, Peru and Bolivia have seen their once triumphant indigenism movements crushed by authoritarian takeovers. Ecuador’s acclaimed Daniel Noboa, governing once an indigenist bastion, recently stormed a foreign embassy to capture a political opponent, blatantly violating international law.

Mexico may be following a similar path. Morena promised a transformation akin to the 1910 revolution but has instead embraced the militarisation of public security, ignoring human rights abuses. Torture within the criminal justice system is widespread, and authorities fail to investigate enforced disappearances and assaults on journalists. Alarmingly, Mexico’s new President, Claudia Sheinbaum, has shown little inclination to shift course.

The response arises in a time in which Mexico’s recent economic boom is coming to a halt. Investors are unease about the country’s political instability, and although poverty has reduced, social services have deteriorated along with public finances. Furthermore, the return of Donald Trump to the White House could spark a trade war, further harming the country’s sluggish economy. Might the government try to tighten its grip on power?

Morena is already pushing for alarming security measures, including preventive detention for submitting incorrect tax returns. Yet, an authoritarian backslide would further undermine the legitimacy of the state's control over the use of force. Democracy, instead, offers a more stable path for change, and Sheinbaum may look at the region’s Southern Cone for guidance.

In Uruguay, politicians have responded to their citizens' desire for stability with consistent promises of macroeconomic prudence. In Argentina, the bombastic Javier Milei has captivated citizens by telling the brutal truth about the country’s decline. Similarly, Chile’s once-radical Gabriel Boric has embraced reformism following a significant change in public sentiment.

A constructive engagement with the new U.S. administration could help Ms Sheinbaum strengthen her security policy while avoiding further economic strain. She would thus align her priorities with Trump’s interest in gaining support from Hispanics. Moreover, the disintegration of Mexico’s social democrats provides an opportunity for her to adopt their sound economic policy while maintaining her party’s unity. She could thus demonstrate that Mexico remains open for business.

To avoid the worst, Sheinbaum must move beyond Morena’s echo chambers and recognise that weak governance and economic stagnation could break Mexico’s political regime. Her popularity is key to her success, but she must use it pragmatically to rebuild public trust in political institutions. After all, Mexican democracy – and her own political future – may well depend on it.